well today is opening day of the contest.Already guests on CNBC are giving speculative ideas.One idea this AM was to buy the GM prefered stock{BGM}is one I know.these are traded on the NYSE.Many companies have issued these kind of securities.They are usually originally offered at a $25 face value with yield and maturity listed in the name .So the “bgm” was issued at a coupon of 7.375 and is redeemable in 2048.However doubts about gm’s survival have caused this security to trade at $4!!!.this produces a yield of around 30%.The guest felt if a bailout occurs these could triple.Prefered and bondholders dividend are paid first ,so these securities become valuable just on the news that GM is a “going concern”.I can say these traded at around $15 just a few months ago before GM cash situation worsened.Ford also has such securities..a symbol there would be FCZ.These are a interesting speculation in or out of the contest as the dividend IS still being payed…Using BGM as a example;the $ . 46 quarterly dividend will cover the stock price within 2 years!.The risk of course is a GM bankruptcy .One could argue of course if you would be better off trading the GM common; as it is a $3 stock.For GM common to go to $9 would seem less likely in the current car sales situation however.2008-11-17

The timing of this new contest is interesting…in the last year the only people who have made money in the market are the hyper bears.Some hedge funds made billions by simply shorting stocks into oblivion.A strategy a ordinary person could certainly replicate due to its simplicity.Everything is down!. So the natural tendency would be to take a “trend is your fiend”strategy and run with.But the market is a perverse thing..There have been several violent rallies typical of a bear market.Many think valuations are very low[once in a century].So could winning be as simple as being very very Bullish?.Probably not as the bad news flows daily.But a strategy of getting in on big down days and selling on the bounce seems like a good start!2008-11-17

In a surprise press release today,CNBC is sponsoring another free to enter online stock trading contest.It looks like the name will remain the same “cnbc million dollar portfolio challenge”.A new contest was not expected so soon after the summer end of the last contest ,also named the same.More details will follow.2008-10-27

News release on FNM and FRE discount window opened …fre@7$ could be up big2008-07-11

If you are having problems don’t feel stupid..it doesn’t get much tougher than this!However this creates oportunity.Just do one thing.. be right!..Today is the deadline to sign up for the contest and still be eligible for the grand prize.Now many would say it is too late to catch up with the current leader.Not in this market!….one false move and the leader will crash and burn..I still think the winner will turn out to be someone who forms a opinion about whether oil or gold or some other commodity will go up or down and:”bets the farm” by taking a large bet on a stock in that category that could double.It is a shame the contest did not allow shorting because that has been the winning strategy for most stocks in this market.However you can use the etf that trades double up on a down move such as the “dug “etf there are similar short etf s for s&p, dwia.The problem is it is hard to get enough leverage to make a big score.I still think that playing long airline/gm in the<10$ if you think oil will fall or long the small drillers in the 4$ range if you think oil will spike will be a winner…. if you are right.If you want to play huricanes check out low float ipii..largest independent building supplier in Fla Louisiana area ;this stock quadrupled in the Katrina storm.Also matrix indusries they repair oil rig and factories/ plants in the Panhandle2008-07-11

Tell you something you don’t know right!.Very few ideas are working in this pessimist market.Remember that contestants cannot be as nimble as pro traders since the contest requires you to hold positions overnight.On the other hand many contest leaders have been whipsawed and seen large gains wiped out by wrong decisions[or right trades that turned wrong overnight and caused huge losses before they could be exited].This means even late entrants that are right have a chance to win.So there is hope.But what to do? 1]look for special situations; like earnings reports.A short in RIMM would have payed off hansomlyafter they disapointed.Go with what we know=pessimisim.Therefore why not short stocks that are due to report earnings.in this market it never seems to be good enough.2]Develop a opinion about the price of oil ,gold and the market in general.Use the etfs such as the dog ,dug, gld to make a bet.The volatility is such that being right will produce large gains .If you think oil has topped go long the airline stocks.AMR will pop 30%ON A BREAK IN OIL PRICE BELOW 130.The small cap E&P stock have got to be stretched in price .They will drop like stones as well in the event of a break in oil price[ like BDCO ].Gm is on its way to penny stock status…or is it? will Kerkorian or some other raider take a run at the Grand Dame of American carmakers? .Gm went from 30-12 in less than a year.It went from 20 -12 in less than 2 months..A very interesting speculation.If you think oil will keep going up it is probably a short.If oil breaks below 130 Gm could “rocket”up to 18 in a Detroit minute. But what will oil do?.Don’t know…… but I will throw this out….This is the 4 of July week end.All the Media will have stories on the effect of high gas prices on holiday activities.Many times in years past the entry into the summer season has been a short term peak in oil prices .Buy on the rumor-sell on the news…Is this the”NEWS” that the oil traders will use to head for the doors ?Watch what happens if/after oil gets above 140.If it cant stay above 140..the party may be over for a while ,and the oil trades mentioned above could be winners! 2008-07-11

CNBC is about to profile beaten down shoe maker HLYS as a short squeeze cadidate @$4.37…I would add crox…has been pretty steady round 10$ for a while.Seems like a long shot…Altucher is speaking… calls it possible double…says shoes are out of stock at stores[is that cause they don't sell and didn't reorder? lol]did mention CROX as well. Update 2:44 est. Jim cramer say new canvas Crocs are ugly and he would take other side of trade…[short or don't buy crox]2008-10-27

An anylist by the name of Scott Barbee makes a convincing case for FBR.Now,I am a bit familiar with this stock, having owned it years ago when it changed from a Investment bank into a REIT.At the time REIT[real estate investment trusts] were very popular due to the favorable tax treatment and the sucessful conversion to this format by other corporations..That was before subprime.Guess what they invest in?yup… mortgages.The stock was a disaster for me then; I sold it at $7 bought at 15$.That was years before the subprime meltdown as well!.But it has got worse..it is now trading at$1.60.To say this stock is hated is an understatement.However in many ways the stock is a poorer version of Analy mortgage.They invest in mortgage loans and work off the spread.Analy is the best of the group and it has been hurt too..but not like this!.Mr Barbee claims to have looked through the mortgage and agency bond portfolio and finds it not as horrific as it’s near bankruptcy stock price would indicate.Why would this be a possibility for the contest?..1]low stock price =much leverage.$3 is a 100% gain.2]Financial stocks have been pounded into the sand for the last 7 sessions.They bounced on Fri and were up today.A strategy that has worked is to find stocks in a sector that is out of favor,but is coming into favor,and have not participated yet. 3]limited downside=good risk reward.Don’t fall in love with this stock! shoot for a coat tail ride if the financials have a good week .Goldman Sacks and other big companies report earnings this week.Look for plays in this volatile sector this week!2008-06-16

Crox.Expected to earn $1.70 /share.huge short interest.everyone hates it now. down from $50 to 9$.Heh Heh.I like this one to buy outside of the contest but I would’nt bet the rent money.Could be a nice pop for the contest.What if it took a upgrade?or a agitator like Carl Ichan takes a stake?.You could get your 30% and move on.2008-06-04

This years contest is made harder by the addition of the currency trading option.it was stated that the top contestants have made 60,000$ trading currency primarily the dollar vs. euro.I am not sure the time frame that occured.That being said if you are unfamilar with currency trading[ like me ]you would probably be better off skipping that portion of the competition.It is quite possible that the combination of the two will not be in the eventual winners portfolio.Today I wanted to mention the small cap E&P oil companies.These volatile stocks have showed wild price movement.Check out ROYL and OMNI for example.Now you can play these either way ; if you think that oil price will tumble you could short these or if you are bullish buy on the dips.I have seen these stocks spike 30% in a day.They did the same thing after Katrina.Speaking of hurricanes; the season is on!.One way to play hurricanes that i did after katrina is MTRX.this stock does industrial repair of the kind needed on power plants ,refinerys and some drilling rig work.It can really soar on a landfall in the gulf.So keep an eye on these!2008-06-04