One problem with playing the short side is that shorts get greedy as much as people do on the long side…the difference is ;with a short position …the losses are unlimited….A stock may go up and up for years….A category of stock that has been pounded down and has showed good price movement in last two days is the homebuilders[ TOL HOV LEN etc.]These can run and run when the short squeeze starts since the proportion of the available float that has been shorted is so large.One would think a good time to have covered would be after the Obama news conference regarding the new loan programs….BUT….. did they?….KB homes is up 20% at this time [3 pm].It would be just too bad for a short if they went home early for Turkey day And someone started a buy program right now into the close!!.Friday could be very profitable for longs and a bad hangover for the shorts…

Heavy buying of the GM NYSE pf bonds gbm xgm hgm gpm bonds mentioned in a earlier post.Note that GM is up as well.These are all up around 30%..These securities do not trade the volumes seen today normally.Appears some one thinks GM may be getting some good news regarding its financial health over the next few days?

bounce this morning in the futures off of a reversal in Asia after thursdays 400 point rout.Remember!!!! you cannot trade in and out with this contest …..you must hold the security overnight…if you want to play a bounce in the market today …be sure you think it will still be there Monday

well today is opening day of the contest.Already guests on CNBC are giving speculative ideas.One idea this AM was to buy the GM prefered stock{BGM}is one I know.these are traded on the NYSE.Many companies have issued these kind of securities.They are usually originally offered at a $25 face value with yield and maturity listed in the name .So the “bgm” was issued at a coupon of 7.375 and is redeemable in 2048.However doubts about gm’s survival have caused this security to trade at $4!!!.this produces a yield of around 30%.The guest felt if a bailout occurs these could triple.Prefered and bondholders dividend are paid first ,so these securities become valuable just on the news that GM is a “going concern”.I can say these traded at around $15 just a few months ago before GM cash situation worsened.Ford also has such securities..a symbol there would be FCZ.These are a interesting speculation in or out of the contest as the dividend IS still being payed…Using BGM as a example;the $ . 46 quarterly dividend will cover the stock price within 2 years!.The risk of course is a GM bankruptcy .One could argue of course if you would be better off trading the GM common; as it is a $3 stock.For GM common to go to $9 would seem less likely in the current car sales situation however.2008-11-17

The timing of this new contest is interesting…in the last year the only people who have made money in the market are the hyper bears.Some hedge funds made billions by simply shorting stocks into oblivion.A strategy a ordinary person could certainly replicate due to its simplicity.Everything is down!. So the natural tendency would be to take a “trend is your fiend”strategy and run with.But the market is a perverse thing..There have been several violent rallies typical of a bear market.Many think valuations are very low[once in a century].So could winning be as simple as being very very Bullish?.Probably not as the bad news flows daily.But a strategy of getting in on big down days and selling on the bounce seems like a good start!2008-11-17

In a surprise press release today,CNBC is sponsoring another free to enter online stock trading contest.It looks like the name will remain the same “cnbc million dollar portfolio challenge”.A new contest was not expected so soon after the summer end of the last contest ,also named the same.More details will follow.2008-10-27

News release on FNM and FRE discount window opened …fre@7$ could be up big2008-07-11

If you are having problems don’t feel stupid..it doesn’t get much tougher than this!However this creates oportunity.Just do one thing.. be right!..Today is the deadline to sign up for the contest and still be eligible for the grand prize.Now many would say it is too late to catch up with the current leader.Not in this market!….one false move and the leader will crash and burn..I still think the winner will turn out to be someone who forms a opinion about whether oil or gold or some other commodity will go up or down and:”bets the farm” by taking a large bet on a stock in that category that could double.It is a shame the contest did not allow shorting because that has been the winning strategy for most stocks in this market.However you can use the etf that trades double up on a down move such as the “dug “etf there are similar short etf s for s&p, dwia.The problem is it is hard to get enough leverage to make a big score.I still think that playing long airline/gm in the<10$ if you think oil will fall or long the small drillers in the 4$ range if you think oil will spike will be a winner…. if you are right.If you want to play huricanes check out low float ipii..largest independent building supplier in Fla Louisiana area ;this stock quadrupled in the Katrina storm.Also matrix indusries they repair oil rig and factories/ plants in the Panhandle2008-07-11

Tell you something you don’t know right!.Very few ideas are working in this pessimist market.Remember that contestants cannot be as nimble as pro traders since the contest requires you to hold positions overnight.On the other hand many contest leaders have been whipsawed and seen large gains wiped out by wrong decisions[or right trades that turned wrong overnight and caused huge losses before they could be exited].This means even late entrants that are right have a chance to win.So there is hope.But what to do? 1]look for special situations; like earnings reports.A short in RIMM would have payed off hansomlyafter they disapointed.Go with what we know=pessimisim.Therefore why not short stocks that are due to report earnings.in this market it never seems to be good enough.2]Develop a opinion about the price of oil ,gold and the market in general.Use the etfs such as the dog ,dug, gld to make a bet.The volatility is such that being right will produce large gains .If you think oil has topped go long the airline stocks.AMR will pop 30%ON A BREAK IN OIL PRICE BELOW 130.The small cap E&P stock have got to be stretched in price .They will drop like stones as well in the event of a break in oil price[ like BDCO ].Gm is on its way to penny stock status…or is it? will Kerkorian or some other raider take a run at the Grand Dame of American carmakers? .Gm went from 30-12 in less than a year.It went from 20 -12 in less than 2 months..A very interesting speculation.If you think oil will keep going up it is probably a short.If oil breaks below 130 Gm could “rocket”up to 18 in a Detroit minute. But what will oil do?.Don’t know…… but I will throw this out….This is the 4 of July week end.All the Media will have stories on the effect of high gas prices on holiday activities.Many times in years past the entry into the summer season has been a short term peak in oil prices .Buy on the rumor-sell on the news…Is this the”NEWS” that the oil traders will use to head for the doors ?Watch what happens if/after oil gets above 140.If it cant stay above 140..the party may be over for a while ,and the oil trades mentioned above could be winners! 2008-07-11

CNBC is about to profile beaten down shoe maker HLYS as a short squeeze cadidate @$4.37…I would add crox…has been pretty steady round 10$ for a while.Seems like a long shot…Altucher is speaking… calls it possible double…says shoes are out of stock at stores[is that cause they don't sell and didn't reorder? lol]did mention CROX as well. Update 2:44 est. Jim cramer say new canvas Crocs are ugly and he would take other side of trade…[short or don't buy crox]2008-10-27