Tell you something you don’t know right!.Very few ideas are working in this pessimist market.Remember that contestants cannot be as nimble as pro traders since the contest requires you to hold positions overnight.On the other hand many contest leaders have been whipsawed and seen large gains wiped out by wrong decisions[or right trades that turned wrong overnight and caused huge losses before they could be exited].This means even  late entrants that are right have a chance to win.So there is hope.But what  to do? 1]look for special situations; like earnings reports.A short in RIMM would have payed off hansomlyafter they disapointed.Go with what we know=pessimisim.Therefore why not short stocks that are due to report earnings.in this market it never seems to be good enough.2]Develop a opinion about the price of oil ,gold and the market in general.Use the etfs such as the dog ,dug, gld  to make a bet.The volatility is such that being right will produce large gains .If you think oil has topped go long the airline stocks.AMR will pop 30%ON A BREAK IN OIL PRICE BELOW 130.The small cap E&P stock have got to be stretched in price .They will drop like stones as well in the event of a break in oil price[ like BDCO  ].Gm is on its way to penny stock status…or is it? will Kerkorian or some other raider take a run at the Grand Dame of American carmakers? .Gm went from 30-12 in less than a year.It went from 20 -12 in less than 2 months..A very interesting speculation.If you think oil will keep going up it is probably a short.If oil breaks below 130 Gm could “rocket”up to 18 in a Detroit minute.                       But what will oil do?.Don’t know…… but I will throw this out….This is the 4 of July week end.All the Media will have stories on the effect of high gas prices on holiday activities.Many times in years past the entry into the summer season has been a short term peak in oil prices .Buy on the rumor-sell on the news…Is this the”NEWS” that the oil traders will use to head for the doors ?Watch what happens if/after oil gets above 140.If it cant stay above 140..the party may be over for a while ,and the oil trades mentioned above could be winners!                                .

CNBC is about to profile beaten down shoe maker HLYS as a short squeeze cadidate @$4.37…I would add crox…has been pretty steady round 10$ for a while.Seems like a long shot…Altucher is speaking… calls it possible double…says shoes are out of stock at stores[is that cause they don’t sell and didn’t reorder? lol]did mention CROX as well. Update 2:44 est. Jim cramer say new canvas Crocs are ugly and he would take other side of trade…[short or don’t buy crox]

An anylist by the name of Scott Barbee makes a convincing case for FBR.Now,I am a bit familiar with this stock, having owned it years ago when it changed from a Investment bank into a REIT.At the time REIT[real estate investment trusts] were very popular due to the favorable tax treatment and the sucessful conversion to this format by other corporations..That was before subprime.Guess what they invest in?yup… mortgages.The stock was a disaster for me then; I sold it at $7 bought at 15$.That was years before the subprime meltdown as well!.But it has got worse..it is now trading at$1.60.To say this stock is hated is an understatement.However in many ways the stock is a poorer version of Analy mortgage.They invest in mortgage loans and work off the spread.Analy is the best of the group and it has been hurt too..but not like this!.Mr Barbee claims to have looked through the mortgage and agency bond portfolio and finds it not as horrific as it’s near bankruptcy stock price would indicate.Why would this be a possibility for the contest?..1]low stock price =much leverage.$3 is a 100% gain.2]Financial stocks have been pounded into the sand for the last 7 sessions.They bounced on Fri and were up today.A strategy that has worked is to find stocks in a sector that is out of favor,but is coming into favor,and have not participated yet. 3]limited downside=good risk reward.Don’t fall in love with this stock! shoot for a coat tail ride if the financials have a good week .Goldman Sacks and other big companies report earnings this week.Look for plays in this volatile sector this week!

A tidbit I caught today…If you saw my earlier posts I am skeptical that SIRI is a good stock to win with for this contest.however today A government representative [FCC?]was on CNBC.If you did not see it he was asked by the reporter.When do you expect to wrap up your review?.He gave the usual WSO..Poker response.basically;” It’s very complicated”.At this point ace reporter David Faber pressed him”Sir; respectfully, this has been going on for over a year..don’t you owe the company a answer; like tomorrow?”.The idea of this pointed question is to try to get, what is called in poker”A tell”.You minght want to see if you can review that clip on the cnbc site.My take was that maybe something is up.Naturally he gave a non commit answer” like we expect to wrap it up soon”.Which has been said before.What is different ?The bush administration is in its ending days.Frequently contriversial decisions are postponed till the end of congresses session.;.can you say summer recess?.you get the idea !..if this deal is to get done; it has to be before/if …the democrats take control of the FCC and congress.Expect something soon.But don’t expect a huge move[like a double] If the deal is approved.Still it could run %30 on news of a deal.Timing is everything.As I said I don’t think this is the greatest stock for this contest;but apparently this is the most widely held stock by contestants;so I thought it was pertinent.

Crox.Expected to earn $1.70 /share.huge short interest.everyone hates it now. down from $50 to 9$.Heh Heh.I like this one to buy outside of the contest but I would’nt bet the rent money.Could be a nice pop for the contest.What if it took a upgrade?or a agitator like Carl Ichan takes a stake?.You could get your 30% and move on.

This years contest is made harder by the addition of the currency trading option.it was stated that the top contestants have made 60,000$ trading currency primarily the dollar vs. euro.I am not sure the time frame that occured.That being said if you are unfamilar with currency trading[ like me ]you would probably be better off  skipping that portion of the competition.It is quite possible that the combination of the two will not be  in the eventual winners portfolio.Today I wanted to mention the small cap E&P oil companies.These volatile stocks have showed wild price movement.Check out ROYL and OMNI for example.Now you can play these either way ; if you think that oil price will tumble you could short these or if you are bullish buy on the dips.I have seen these stocks spike 30% in a day.They did the same thing after Katrina.Speaking of hurricanes; the season is on!.One way to play hurricanes that i did after katrina is MTRX.this stock does industrial repair of the kind needed on power plants ,refinerys and some drilling rig work.It can really soar on  a landfall in the gulf.So keep an  eye on these!